Regional Power Struggle: Can India Match China’s Influence In South Asia?
As China continues to assert its influence across Asia and beyond, India finds itself in a delicate position, striving to counter Beijing’s growing regional dominance while balancing its own economic and strategic priorities. The two Asian giants, whose relationship has long been fraught with tension, are now engaged in a complex competition and cooperation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region and South Asia. But can India, with its growing global stature and ambitions, effectively match China’s expanding influence in the region?
India’s approach to countering China’s influence is multi-pronged, shaped by a combination of strategic alliances, economic recalibration, military modernization, and diplomatic outreach. At the heart of New Delhi’s efforts lies the realization that it cannot stand alone in this challenge. India has been working to strengthen its partnerships with key global and regional powers, notably through alliances such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad, which includes the United States, Japan, and Australia. The Quad has emerged as a cornerstone of India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, signaling a concerted effort by like-minded democracies to check China’s assertiveness in the region. Joint military exercises, enhanced security cooperation, and infrastructure development initiatives with these countries underscore India’s commitment to playing a more prominent role in regional security.
India’s deepening ties with the United States have been particularly significant in this regard. Defense agreements such as BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) and COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) have opened the door to greater intelligence sharing and defense collaboration, enabling India to strengthen its military capabilities in a region where China’s presence is increasingly felt. Furthermore, India has expanded its strategic partnerships with European powers such as France, Germany, and the UK, in an effort to diversify its diplomatic and economic engagements and reduce its reliance on China.
On the economic front, India is working to lessen its dependence on Chinese imports and supply chains, a goal that gained urgency in the aftermath of the CoVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent border clashes with China in the Galwan Valley. The “Make in India” initiative has become a central pillar of India’s economic strategy, with the government pushing for the development of domestic manufacturing and the creation of alternative supply chains that do not rely on China. India’s efforts to position itself as an attractive destination for global companies looking to diversify their manufacturing bases have begun to bear fruit, with major tech firms like Apple and Tesla ramping up their operations in the country.
India has also sought to challenge China’s infrastructure-driven diplomacy by presenting itself as a more transparent and sustainable alternative to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Along with Japan, India has launched the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, which aims to foster connectivity and development across Asia and Africa, offering recipient countries an option that does not come with the debt concerns that have often accompanied Chinese investment. In this way, India hopes to not only counter China’s influence but also present itself as a more reliable partner to smaller nations in the region.
While India’s efforts to bolster its regional standing are evident, it faces formidable challenges. The economic asymmetry between India and China remains stark. China’s economy, which is over five times larger than India’s, allows Beijing to wield greater financial clout, particularly in countries that are economically vulnerable and reliant on foreign aid. Through its extensive infrastructure investments and loans under the BRI, China has established deep footholds in countries like Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka — regions that India traditionally considered within its sphere of influence. India’s response has been to increase its own development aid and infrastructure investments in these countries, but it often finds itself playing catch-up, as China’s projects tend to be larger in scale and quicker in execution.
Militarily, India has been modernizing its armed forces with a specific focus on enhancing its naval and air capabilities, crucial for maintaining a strategic presence in the Indian Ocean region. China’s growing naval activity in the Indian Ocean, particularly through its base in Djibouti and its port access agreements with countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka, has raised concerns in New Delhi. In response, India has been expanding its own naval infrastructure and increasing its presence in the region, developing bases in countries like Mauritius and the Seychelles, and conducting regular joint exercises with major powers. The launch of India’s indigenously built aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant, and the acquisition of advanced fighter jets like the Rafale are also key steps in fortifying India’s military readiness.
However, India’s efforts to counter China’s influence are not limited to hard power. Diplomatically, India has leveraged its historical, cultural, and religious ties with South Asian neighbors to foster goodwill and strengthen relationships. Countries like Bhutan, Nepal, and the Maldives have been key targets of India’s outreach, with New Delhi offering development aid and medical assistance as part of its broader regional engagement. India’s focus on soft power, including its democratic institutions, vibrant culture, and large diaspora, also stands in contrast to China’s authoritarian model, which some countries view with suspicion.
In the broader context of international diplomacy, India’s rising global stature provides it with new opportunities to shape the regional order. India’s active participation in forums such as the United Nations, BRICS, and the G20 positions it as a leading voice for the Global South, and its advocacy for issues such as climate change, sustainable development, and the reform of international institutions resonates with many countries that are wary of China’s growing dominance.
India’s strategy to counter China’s regional influence is therefore a complex and multifaceted one, involving diplomatic outreach, economic resilience, military modernization, and strategic alliances. While India may not be able to match China’s economic clout or infrastructure development pace in the short term, it is carving out a role as a key player in the Indo-Pacific, offering a different vision for regional stability and development. The road ahead will undoubtedly be challenging, but India’s growing network of alliances and its focus on self-reliance suggest that it is determined to hold its ground in this emerging regional power struggle.
